[extropy-chat] Impeachment of President Bush What odds amIoffered?

Brett Paatsch bpaatsch at bigpond.net.au
Fri Dec 23 03:27:32 UTC 2005


Spike wrote:

>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
>> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Brett Paatsch
>> Sent: Tuesday, December 20, 2005 3:05 PM
>> To: ExI chat list
>> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Impeachment of President Bush What odds
>> amIoffered?
>> 
>> Spike, this is a binary proposition, either President Bush will be
>> impeached or not. Every thing except him being inpeached falls
>> into the category of Not.  You are a maths guy, so the proposition
>> must interest you from a maths standpoint...
>> What do you say Spike? What odds? Brett Paatsch
> 
> Brett I have been away on a business trip so I am
> behind on the posts.  As for making bets on the
> odds of Bush's impeachment, that is a political
> wager having little or nothing to do with math.  

When you returned you set aside your own suggestion and
posted on this topic after the 22nd. 

I didn't know that you were away. You didn't say. The
list had no moderator during that time apparently. 

I was trying to work out how to continue to talk with Hal to 
refine our bet without doing that, without posting in bad
faith into a thread that was obviously going to be seen
by some numb nuts as being about nothing more than
party politics.  

> I went to Ideas Futures to get an idea of how the
> masses estimated this possibility.  Being as this
> bet is available, there is no need to search for
> people to take up a wager with you.  All you need
> to do is find someone who will cover Ideas Futures
> with real money.  The IFX bet is at 22 cents on the
> dollar for Bush being either impeached or resigning,
> which sounds pretty reasonable to me.  If I were
> to buy into that bet, I would need to think for
> some time to decide if I wanted to buy a yes for
> 23 cents or a no for 77 cents.

My gripe with Americans is that there never is a time when
they do take that time out and take stock and your elected
officials are factoring that in now. They are factoring in, 
that you don't understand and they are factoring in that you
don't care and they are using those things to undermine the
freedoms that people enjoy overseas now and the ones
that you enjoy at home later.  
 
We had a global system where it was agreed that nations
would not launch aggressive wars on other nations. Your
government has undermined that system. 

Your government has dispensed with the rule of law and
replaced it with the rule of force. 


> http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=BuImp
> 
> I trust you are familiar with Ideas Futures, the
> brilliant brainchild of one of our own ExI posters,
> Robin Hanson. 

Yes. 

> In political matters, I understand
> there are plenty of opportunities to set up real-
> money bets online, altho I do not personally have
> the links.  Anyone?

I don't want to bet on just any old bet I want to bet
on this particular thing because I want to bring a bunch
of dopey American extropes attention to this particular
problem. 

If you are going to ignore the problem of  having a 
nation state run by Presidents that act outside the rule
of law than it will, it must, inevitably get worse. 

 
> Regarding the taking of bets, I always prefer
> something I can actually calculate.  I made a
> ton of play-money on IFX for twice estimating
> the time interval until the next record prime
> number.  Now I cannot play that game any more,
> for those who make those kinds of bets realize
> I know how to do this calculus and will not bet 
> against me.  With no one willing to bet against 
> me, money cannot be made wagering.  This is
> fortunate for me perhaps, because my formula
> recently failed: we have found the densest cluster
> of Mersenne primes seen to date.  
> 
> Prime numbers are delightfully weird, but political 
> matters are completely incomprehensible.

They are only incomprehensible because you haven't
tried. 

And Spike your not trying is an abrogation of 
responsibilty.  

In 1945, Senator Vandenburg, in delivering the
United Nations Charter to the US Senate for their
ratification said :

"We American's have a habit of keeping our
countries word, - a habit by the way, which needs
to become contagious if any sort of world order
shall survive". 

Brett Paatsch






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