[extropy-chat] Impeachment of President Bush What odds am Ioffered?

Brett Paatsch bpaatsch at bigpond.net.au
Fri Dec 23 07:53:14 UTC 2005


Hal Finney wrote:

> Brett writes:
>> If I was to say that I have US$1000 of real money that says
>> that President George W Bush will be impeached what odds
>> would serious minded people like to offer me I wonder?
> 
> There is a related claim at the FX game,
> http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=BuImp
> 
> : Claim BuImp - Bush impeached or resigns
> :
> : This claim will be true if a majority of the US house votes
>:  to impeach George Bush--or Bush resigns from office. It may
>: be judged when another US president is inaugurated or 
>: George Bush out of office.
> :
> : Note: it is not necessary for the Senate to convict Bush for 
> : this claim to be true.
> 
> Since its creation in September, the claim has traded very
> stably at about 20, implying a roughly 20% chance of coming
> true.  This counts both resignation and impeachment, so the 
> odds of just impeachment would be somewhat lower, but I
> don't know how much.
> 
> So I'd be willing to offer 4 to 1 odds against, and feel like I had a
> modest profit expectation.  And yes, I'd be willing to cover the
> $1000 bet (putting up my $4000 against that).

Thank you Hal.

I want to do this for real. And I think that there is way that
we (you and I) can.

But right now I am too tired to work out what the real odds
are, I can't accept the accuracy of the cite you reference because
the money there isn't real. 

I want to take a break until after the new year. 

I hope that you and I can pick this up again then. 

I think that we could get an extrope in the UK to hold our
bets for us and perhaps in that way you would not be
exposed to breaching californian law. 

And I've been watching developments with Betfair that
has now has an Australian license. Come February it will
be  up and running in Australia.  Betfair is perhaps breaking
through all the political barriers and it might be that
a for real money market might be set up here once it
has done that. 

This particular bet is one that I think would be a good one
to start up a market around. 

I can think of no person who I would rather lose a bet
too than Hal Finney.  Though of course I would still
prefer not to lose ;-). 

Regards,
Brett Paatsch




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