[extropy-chat] damien's psi book

[Mike Lorrey]

--- spike <spike66 at comcast.net> wrote: 
> The game is to guess the leading digit.    
> 
> If one is aware of the n/ln(n) trick, one would guess
> 1 every time (We disallow leading zeros for sake of argument),
> leading to an anomalous 8.81 percent higher than expected
> win rate compared someone who liked 9 and always picked that
> number.

Well, then this is useful. I've looked at return on risk for lotteries.
I typically will buy a ticket when I see that the cash jackpot amount,
in dollars, has exceeded the odds ($70 million for odds of 1 in 70
million). I don't adjust for taxes because I already have a strategy
for dealing with those that is entirely legal avoidance (involving
having an offshore trust cash the ticket, since a lotto ticket is a
bearer instrument).

When the return on risk (cash value : odds) exceeds 1:1, it becomes an
investment grade risk, is no longer truly gambling. Whatever one can do
to improve that 1:1 ratio increases the value of the ticket.

>From what I hear you saying, if I limited my numbers to 1, 11, 12, 13,
14, 15, ...19 I would be increasing my odds by 8.81%? Is  this correct?

> 
> The next post on this topic is about what all this has to 
> do with psi, uploading, evolution, extropy and everything 
> like that. I had a blinding flash, a mind-blowing epiphany 
> while doing these calcs.

That sounds like something for another spike essay.

=====
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=Sadomikeyism

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