[extropy-chat] Drake Equation nitpicking

[Mike Lorrey]

--- John K Clark <jonkc at att.net> wrote:

> Michael Crichton had some interesting things to say about the Drake
> Equation:
> 
> "This serious-looking equation gave SETI an serious footing as a
> legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that
> none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated.
> The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And
> guesses-just so we're clear-are merely expressions of prejudice.
> Nor can there be "informed guesses." If you need to state how many
> planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to
> make an informed guess. It's simply prejudice."
> 
> "As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from "billions
> and billions" to zero. An expression that can mean anything means
> nothing.
> Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and
> has nothing to do with science."

The problem with this argument, wrt the discussion at hand, is that we
already have one solar system, with one planet, with one species, which
is intelligent. The Drake equation is concerned with finding the number
of intelligent species OTHER THAN us. WRT the simulation argument, we
only need one in one natural universe, and one in each simulation that
civilization spawns.

So, wrt the Lorrey Equation, the only parameters which are unknown are
the last two, i.e. fraction of civilizations that go posthuman, and
fraction of those who simulate universes. 

We know the human race exists, but do not know if we will survive the
posthuman period long enough to simulate universes. 

Beyond this, even being as pessimistic as possible, the Drake equation
only applies to this galaxy, not the entire universe, and only cares
about civilizations that coexist in the same era as us. Even if the
Drake equation came out with 1 in a million odds of one other radio
communicating civilization, this still means billions of such
civilizations in the entire universe over the history of the entire
universe.

Those who continue to be pessimistic toward the simulation argument are
being hopelessly catholic in their abject atheism.

=====
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=Sadomikeyism


		
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