[extropy-chat] Drake Equation nitpicking

[Mike Lorrey]

--- Adrian Tymes <wingcat at pacbell.net> wrote:

> --- Mike Lorrey <mlorrey at yahoo.com> wrote:
> > --- Adrian Tymes <wingcat at pacbell.net> wrote:
> > > 
> > > Not necessarily.  The terms ft and fs both seem to
> > be
> > > essentially unknown (despite unjustified claims
> > that
> > > fs in particular and maybe also ft are both 1),
> > and it
> > > seems like (R* x fp x ne x fl x fi) <= 1 for the
> > > volume of space we have observed so far, possibly
> > for
> > > the entire galaxy.
> > 
> > On the contrary, we count as 1
> 
> The question is, what is the expected number of
> intelligent races in the volume of space that we have
> observed - without reference to the fact that this
> would be 0 if we didn't exist?  Is the fact that there
> is 1 race here a rare exception in that we're higher
> (or lower) than normal, or is our area pretty average?
> 
> We have a data point.  We don't have the actual
> values.

Not when it comes to the simulation argument. One race with an interest
in simming is all it takes to tip the odds. I think the human races'
predeliction to play video games of various sorts which only seems to
grow as technology improves indicates that this course should be
expected for the human race.

But we aren't totally at a loss for data either. We don't have just one
data point. We have counted over 150 extrasolar planets since Drake did
his equation and I believe everyone is pretty shocked at how common
planets seem to be, as well as the variety of solar systems possible.

The only one where we've been able to directly detect terrestrial
planets is around a pulsar that burned out its planets long ago, but
its planets are in orbits considered to be the most like our own solar
system, includinge several inner worlds and a jupiter type around the
distance of the asteroid belt which has one or more terrestrial moons
(all of these have been derived from variations in the pulsar
frequency, which is much easier than measuring the wobble in a much
larger star). This system could have been a very viable one long ago
when the pulsar was a real star.

Given the number of large planets we've discovered so far, I think it
is fair to predict that we will find an equal number of terrestrial
planets and four to eight times as many large moons based on the
distribution of the two solar systems we've been able to examine with
close enough detail. This many such planets will be found only within
the few thousand light years distance that astronomers are dealing with
at current day resolution, and in the systems already observed to have
large gas giants and/or brown dwarfs.

I think this astronomy done since Drake's time indicates that
optimistic expectations should be considered normal, considering that
physics and chemistry functions the same everywhere. What is needed is
to further hash out the numbers is a very focused, very high power SETI
program looking at extrasolar planets, as well as deployment of the
newer space telescope technologies that will be capable of imaging and
analysing spectra of extrasolar terrestrial worlds.

=====
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=Sadomikeyism


		
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