[extropy-chat] Analyzing the simulation argument

[Dan Clemmensen]

Mike Lorrey wrote:

>--- Dan Clemmensen <dgc at cox.net> wrote:
>  
>
>>Assume a perfect simulation....
>>
>>Here is the way I analyze such a proposition?
>>
>>1) logical and self-consistent? Yes.
>>2) consistent with observed phenomena? Yes.
>>3) useful explanatory power? Maybe.
>>4) falsifiable?  No.
>>    Oops! our hypothesis is in trouble, but this is not absolutely 
>>fatal. We must still decide between
>>the assumption and the null hypothesis, so:
>>5) (Occam's razor) Is the system simpler with or without the
>>assumption? 
>>Without. That's it,
>>ignore it henceforth unless new evidence arises.
>>
>>
>>Please note: this is exactly the same analysis we do for:
>>    "Assume an omnipotent deity."
>>
>>Thus "perfect simulation" and "omnipotent deity" are equivalent
>>concepts.
>>    
>>
>
>While I wouldn't say omnipotent (I can think of many ways a sysop could
>have created my simulation but have absolutely no control over the
>weather in my area of the 'verse), I would make a qualified agreement
>to this.
>
I concur. I did not mean to infer that "omnipotent diety" is the only 
equivalent concept,
and "equivalent" is the wrong word. I should have said 
"indistinguishable." I use this term
in the sense of observationally indistinguishable, even in theory. If 
there is an observable
difference, then one of the two hypotheses is falsifiable.

This leads to a possibly useful exersize: what broadly-held assumptions are
observationally indistinguishable from the omnipotent deity/perfect 
simulation/null hypothesis?

> The important thing is that the simulation argument is the
>meme virus by which we can infect theists worldwide with transhumanism.
>
>  
>
Possibly. Logically, all systems that consist of the null hypothesis 
plus an additional non-falsifiable
assumption are equivalent.  If the simulation argument appeals to a 
significant group, it can
act as a virulent meme and possibly displace other non-falsifiable 
assumptions. I think we
would be better off by displacing all such assumptions with the null 
hypothesis.