[extropy-chat] Analyzing the simulation argument

[Mike Lorrey]

--- Adrian Tymes <wingcat at pacbell.net> wrote:

> A scientific theory is logic which attempts to explain
> some facet of the real world.  The simulation argument
> is also logic which attempts to explain some facet of
> the real world.  In general for this type of logic, it
> has been humanity's experience that science works
> best, and that logic which does not adhere to
> science's precepts - rejecting unfalsifiable
> arguments, for example - is almost always useless.
> (For example, many a theory has been proposed which
> was unfalsifiable at the time; later, when people came
> up with ways to test it undreamt of by the theory's
> creators, the theory was almost inevitably proven
> false.  Given the high number of such data points
> throughout the history of human civilization, we can
> conclude that any presently unfalsifiable theory is
> >99.999% probably also false.)

On the contrary, you need to distinguish between unfalsifiable
arguments based on logic and which works to maximize scientific rigor
as is possible, and unfalsifiable arguments which are plainly based on
superstition from the get go.

For example, Fermats Last Theorem was unfalsifiable for many years, as
previously noted, as were many other theories, theorems, etc. until
they were proven.

It is perfectly acceptable to assume such arguments are untrue by
default until proven otherwise, HOWEVER it is entirely unscientific to
dismiss research that works to prove unproven arguments. Real
scientists are honest enough to distinguish between unproven, currently
unprovable, and absolutely unprovable. 

What is really surprising to me are the number of people here who are
ardent cryonicists, betting their fortunes and lives on what can very
easily be regarded as a Pascals-wager-type risk, but won't make the
same bet on the SA.

=====
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=Sadomikeyism


		
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