[extropy-chat] cosmic silence

[Samantha Atkins]

I think it very likely that most technological species do not survive
the stage in their history that we are now entering.    Consider the
odds that any species that evolution had programmed haphazardly to
reach this level of intelligence would also have naturally evolved or
acquired the means to debug/overcome those parts of its programming
that make it unfit to wield such technological power without the
likelihood of self-destruction rapidly converging on certainy.  We are
far too driven by old programs and not necessarily smart enough to
debug ourselves and our institutions quickly enough.    I am not at
all hopeful as to our prospects.

- samantha


On Wed, 16 Feb 2005 23:32:30 -0800, spike <spike66 at comcast.net> wrote:
> > bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Russell Wallace
> > Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] damien's psi book
> >
> > On Sun, 13 Feb 2005 22:43:29 -0800, spike <spike66 at comcast.net> wrote:
> > >
> > > So where are the others?
> >
> > I've never understood why people are so unhappy with this idea; what's
> > to be unhappy about? It's not as if we have any practical need for the
> > existence of aliens...
> 
> Want or not want is orthogonal to my puzzlement about
> why they are not there.  Even still, I disagree with
> the notion that we have no practical need for the
> existence of aliens, but that's a whole nuther topic.
> 
> > However, one doesn't particularly need to assume their nonexistence
> > either; one can simply postulate that the speed of light is as
> > absolute a barrier as it appears to be...
> 
> I do assume that the speed of light is absolute, and that
> we have no magic physics yet to be discovered.
> 
> > Then the nearest
> > extraterrestrial civilization could be a billion years older than we
> > are and be perfectly consistent with observation, provided they're at
> > least a billion light years away so signals or probes from them
> > haven't had time to reach us yet. Would you be happier with this
> > explanation?
> >
> > - Russell
> 
> Well, no.  I'm focused on the galaxy for now.  I'm
> not ready to accept the notion that technological
> civilizations are short-lived.  The Drake equation,
> as I understand it, suggests tech-capable civs must
> be short lived.  Otherwise we are hard up for an
> explanation for why we aren't hearing or seeing
> them.
> 
> spike
> 
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