[extropy-chat] Re: cosmic silence

[Mike Lorrey]

--- Russell Wallace <russell.wallace at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 10:26:29 -0800 (PST), Mike Lorrey
> <mlorrey at yahoo.com> wrote:
> > 
> > Well, I believe NASA has something to dispute with you. They now
> claim
> > that alien life is most likely now living on Mars:
> 
> I'm aware of that result, but:
> 
> 1) Methane is also produced by nonbiological processes, so all the
> presence of methane on Mars actually tells us is that either there is
> life on Mars or there is not - which isn't exactly news.
> 
> 2) Even if there is life on Mars, that doesn't constitute evidence
> for
> it having evolved more than once in our solar system, because we know
> material has been transmitted between the planets in conditions such
> that it could have carried viable spores.
> 
> 3) Even if we were to find evidence of life having evolved more than
> once, this wouldn't constitute evidence that it evolves intelligence
> in more than, say, 1e-100 of cases. (On Earth, life appeared more or
> less as soon as it could have, and intelligence appeared more or less
> as late as it could have, which is what we would expect to see if the
> evolution of intelligence is more difficult. Of course, this is still
> consistent with the probability of life being 1e-100 and the
> probability of intelligence given life being 1e-200.)

You need to back up these incredibly outrageous numbers with some
facts, as well as your assertion that intelligence appeared as late as
it could have. 

Firstly the fossil record clearly shows carnivores and herbivores, both
during the dinosaur era as well as during the mammallian era, followed
an arms race of increasing brain capacity. The only breaks in those
races came as a result of astronomical cataclysms: major asteroid/comet
impacts. Intelligence rather seems to have shown up right on time here
on earth, given the uncertainty of planetary stability.

Now, given the age of our solar system (3.5-4 billion years), the lack
of eccentricity in the orbits of our planets (which impacts the rate of
astronomical cataclysms and the long term stability of climate on life
bearing planets), and the relative (so far) rarity of solar systems
with low eccentricity planetary orbits, it does indicate that
intelligent life appeared here relatively faster than the average
planetary system, however, being as our solar system is relatively
young in the 13.5 billion year age of the universe, even if planetary
systems started showing up 6-8 billion years ago, that leaves an
immense amount of time for more earth-like planets to show up.

Why do I want there to be aliens? That's easy: I want a job writing for
Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy.

=====
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=Sadomikeyism


		
__________________________________ 
Do you Yahoo!? 
Take Yahoo! Mail with you! Get it on your mobile phone. 
http://mobile.yahoo.com/maildemo