[extropy-chat] Proposed outline for a transhumanist novel (SA/SH)

[Mike Lorrey]

--- Diego Caleiro <diegocaleiro at terra.com.br> wrote:

> 
> In my view, there is a lack of logic in your argument for a
> simulation
> 
> see
> 
> www.dcaleironews.rg3.net
> 
> Click on the serious texts links, the third text in the right. 

"(2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a
significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or
variations thereof)"

You argue that 2 is more probable than 3. Doesn't matter. Even if 2 is
true, as I have shown by some rather simple Bayesian analysis, even if
there exists only one posthuman civilization in the entire history of
each universe, and that civilization only simulates one universe
simulation, then odds are still overwhelmingly in favor of being in a
simulation. In order for odds to be merely 50:50, any given posthuman
civ must have only 50% chance of even running ONE universe sim, such
that a progenitor civ in root universe u^prime would run one sim, and
the one posthuman civ in that universe would choose not to run a sim.
If EITHER civilization chooses to run more sims, or if there are more
than one posthuman civilization in the ENTIRE history of their
respective universes, then odds tip in favor of living in a sim.

For proposition 2 to truly limit the simulation argument, it would have
to be worded to say that any posthuman civilization would less than 50%
likely to run even one universe simulation, AND that a modified Drake
Equation would show there to be one or fewer posthuman civilizations in
the entire history of even one naturally created universe. It truly
must be strengthened to this degree in order to truly limit the odds of
being in a simulation.

=====
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=Sadomikeyism


		
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