[extropy-chat] Preparing for low-probability events

[Dan Clemmensen]

The tsunami in the Indian ocean was a low-probability event, and the 
world was not prepared for it.

We are somewhat prepared for a Tsunami in the Pacific, but only because 
we got nailed by the Alaska tsunami. It is not very smart to pat 
ourselves on the back in this regard. Consider other low-probability 
events: are we prepared for an Atlantic tsunami? What about a 
mid-continent major earthquake in the US, or a major (cat 5) hurricane 
in the Carolinas? The last major mid-continent US earthquake was in 1811 
(New Madrid). The last cat-5 hurricane in the Carolinas was in 1893. If 
either occurred today, the effects would be horrific. A recurrence of 
either event is roughly as likely as the Indian ocean tsunami, to a 
crude first approximation: the last major Indian Ocean tsunami 
(Krakatoa) occurred in 1883.

It is very difficult to get governments or citizens to prepare for such 
events, and a cost-benefit analysis typically shows that it is just not 
worth it in a cold-blooded economic sense. Therefore, we should be very 
careful when we claim that the US (or other "first-world counties") are 
somehow better prepared than Indonesia was.

OK, it's not reasonable to prepare for each of these events 
individually. However, we can perhaps prepare for all of them 
collectively. Any major catastrophe results in a set of consequences, 
many of which are common. Therefore, we (i.e. the people of the world, 
as represented by our governments) might create a generic resource to 
respond to low-probability catastrophes. For example, "rich" countries 
might maintain major air-transportable caches of water -purifiers, 
staple food, field hospitals, tents, and light construction equipment, 
plus a ready reserve of people, to respond to any catastrophe. In the 
case of the US (and I assume most countries) This would be associated 
with the military.

Note that this system is useful for many situations, including response 
to a man-made catastrophe such as a nuclear or biological attack. This 
means that it should be easier to sell the concept, since we can appeal 
whatever fear is most trendy.

The system I refer to is useful in the first hours and days of the 
response. Given time, the world will organize a response to any 
catastrophe. The system I propose would not attempt to solve the 
longer-term problems in advance. It would simply try to deal with the 
immediate problems. First response within 24 hours, food and water 
within 48 hours, etc. Based on the response to the Indian ocean tsunami, 
the world will respond in a more or less effective manner in about two 
weeks, even with no pre-planning. What we need is a pre-organized 
standing response to keep people alive during the first two weeks.