[extropy-chat] Preparing for low-probability events

[Samantha Atkins]

Dan, this is  excellent!    A sort of global emergency kit of 
sufficient size and content to handle the first week or two of getting 
a more precise and thorough response in motion.   This could save an 
awful lot of lives.    Why not suggest a UN program for precisely this 
purpose.    I believe this is quite doable.

- samantha

On Jan 6, 2005, at 8:08 PM, Dan Clemmensen wrote:

> The tsunami in the Indian ocean was a low-probability event, and the 
> world was not prepared for it.
>
> We are somewhat prepared for a Tsunami in the Pacific, but only 
> because we got nailed by the Alaska tsunami. It is not very smart to 
> pat ourselves on the back in this regard. Consider other 
> low-probability events: are we prepared for an Atlantic tsunami? What 
> about a mid-continent major earthquake in the US, or a major (cat 5) 
> hurricane in the Carolinas? The last major mid-continent US earthquake 
> was in 1811 (New Madrid). The last cat-5 hurricane in the Carolinas 
> was in 1893. If either occurred today, the effects would be horrific. 
> A recurrence of either event is roughly as likely as the Indian ocean 
> tsunami, to a crude first approximation: the last major Indian Ocean 
> tsunami (Krakatoa) occurred in 1883.
>
> It is very difficult to get governments or citizens to prepare for 
> such events, and a cost-benefit analysis typically shows that it is 
> just not worth it in a cold-blooded economic sense. Therefore, we 
> should be very careful when we claim that the US (or other 
> "first-world counties") are somehow better prepared than Indonesia 
> was.
>
> OK, it's not reasonable to prepare for each of these events 
> individually. However, we can perhaps prepare for all of them 
> collectively. Any major catastrophe results in a set of consequences, 
> many of which are common. Therefore, we (i.e. the people of the world, 
> as represented by our governments) might create a generic resource to 
> respond to low-probability catastrophes. For example, "rich" countries 
> might maintain major air-transportable caches of water -purifiers, 
> staple food, field hospitals, tents, and light construction equipment, 
> plus a ready reserve of people, to respond to any catastrophe. In the 
> case of the US (and I assume most countries) This would be associated 
> with the military.
>
> Note that this system is useful for many situations, including 
> response to a man-made catastrophe such as a nuclear or biological 
> attack. This means that it should be easier to sell the concept, since 
> we can appeal whatever fear is most trendy.
>
> The system I refer to is useful in the first hours and days of the 
> response. Given time, the world will organize a response to any 
> catastrophe. The system I propose would not attempt to solve the 
> longer-term problems in advance. It would simply try to deal with the 
> immediate problems. First response within 24 hours, food and water 
> within 48 hours, etc. Based on the response to the Indian ocean 
> tsunami, the world will respond in a more or less effective manner in 
> about two weeks, even with no pre-planning. What we need is a 
> pre-organized standing response to keep people alive during the first 
> two weeks.
>
>
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