[extropy-chat] red and white zorfs again

[Adrian Tymes]

--- spike <spike66 at comcast.net> wrote:
> You have N red zorfs, N white zorfs and two large 
> identical urns.  You put all the zorfs into the 
> urns, in any combination you like, then leave the 
> room.  You ask a random person to enter the room, 
> choose one of the urns and bring it to you.  She
> shrieks and flees.  You then ask your spouse (with
> whom
> you are on more familiar terms) to bring you an urn.
>  
> You pull out one zorf without looking.  
> 
> Your goal is to pull a red zorf, these being your
> faves.
> 
> Question: how do you arrange the red and white zorfs
> in the urns such that you maximize the probability
> that you will get your red zorf?  Can you prove it? 
> How?

Leave the urns open.  Put all the red zorfs in one
urn and all the white zorfs in another.  Make sure to
specify in your request for urn fetching that you want
the one with the red zorfs.

Just because you don't look into the urn doesn't mean
your spouse doesn't.  (And of course you don't look:
your spouse earned your trust before becoming your
spouse, and maintained your trust enough for you not
to seek a divorce, no?)  Even the random person, if
she had acted on your request (perhaps she really
really doesn't like red zorfs), would have been more
likely than not to pick the correct one: color
blindness and sociopathy are so rare as to be labelled
"disorders".