Army re-enlistment ahead of schedule, was: Re: [extropy-chat] give a small window into the military mind

[Samantha Atkins]

On Jul 6, 2005, at 1:18 PM, Mike Lorrey wrote:

> This just doesn't wash, Samantha. Firstly, a unit that has 70-97%
> retention has no need of a 'lemming effect'.

It doesn't wash to question the source of a statistic and wait for  
confirmation from other sources before attempting much  
interpretation?  Since when?  Does the administration have a stake in  
persuading the troops that their buds are re-upping.  Of course they  
do.   That alone should call for caution.   How is my early guess  
less valid than your straight out claim that the media has been lying  
to us?   This is the same media that you yourself point out under  
report many things embarrassing to the State.   Doesn't that seem a  
tad out of balance and unjustified to you?


> Secondly, the guy on the
> ground in Iraq should know better than a kid out of high school what
> the trade offs are: he's older and more experienced in both work on  
> the
> outside as well as what is going on in Iraq. It should be easier for a
> recruiter to snowjob a high school kid into enlisting than getting an
> experienced trooper to re-up if things were so bad over there.

The stats on death and injury much less the hideous multi-level  
expense and our questionable reasons for being there don't paint a  
very rosy picture.   Therefore it seems reasonable to me to hold this  
stat somewhat in suspicion and requiring a bit more explanation than  
your apparent leap that things aren't so bad there and the morale is  
great.


> The fact
> that it is the reverse indicates things aren't so bad at all and kids
> here are being lied to by the media.

You cannot legitimately conclude any such thing at this point from  
this one stat.

>
> If the civilian economy were a worse option, then high school kids
> should be signing up more than previously, while experienced troopers
> would be more likely to go civilian because they have more skills and
> experience than a kid out of high school.
>

If they can actually get out.  There is apparently some trouble in  
doing so.

> If the statistics were not accurate, I am positive that liberal
> democrats (and particularly socialist rep. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)) on
> the armed services committees would make the facts known and use it to
> beat a drum of Bush lying.
>

It is early.  Wait and see.

- s