[extropy-chat] Opinion piece on policy-making with prediction markets

Neil Halelamien neuronexmachina at gmail.com
Mon Jun 6 06:49:47 UTC 2005


I came across a fairly good opinion piece in the Jakarta Post on
prediction markets:

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaileditorial.asp?fileid=20050606.E03&irec=2

It discusses the potential utility of using such markets to make
better policy decisions, a topic I don't see covered too often. The
piece also mentions Robin Hanson's "Futarchy" proposal a little:

"In his paper 'Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs,' Hanson
proposed a new form of government, which he calls a 'Futarchy'. In
this government, elected representatives would formally define and
manage after-the-fact measurements of national welfare, while market
speculators would say which policies they expected to raise national
welfare."

Which makes me wonder... after the unfortunate knee-jerk reaction to
the Policy Analysis Market, are there any actions we can take towards
helping make real-money prediction markets legal in the US?

-- Neil



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