[extropy-chat] CHINA: Threat proponents not chicken littles...

[Mike Lorrey]

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20050609-120336-4092r.htm

Analysts missed Chinese buildup


By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES


A highly classified intelligence report produced for the new director
of national intelligence concludes that U.S. spy agencies failed to
recognize several key military developments in China in the past
decade, The Washington Times has learned. 
    The report was created by several current and former intelligence
officials and concludes that U.S. agencies missed more than a dozen
Chinese military developments, according to officials familiar with the
report. 
    The report blames excessive secrecy on China's part for the
failures, but critics say intelligence specialists are to blame for
playing down or dismissing evidence of growing Chinese military
capabilities.  
    The report comes as the Bush administration appears to have become
more critical of China's military buildup. 
    Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said in Singapore over the
weekend that China has hidden its defense spending and is expanding its
missile forces despite facing no threats. Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice also expressed worries this week about China's
expanding military capabilities. 
    Among the failures highlighted in the study are: 
    •China's development of a new long-range cruise missile. 
    •The deployment of a new warship equipped with a stolen Chinese
version of the U.S. Aegis battle management technology. 
    •Deployment of a new attack submarine known as the Yuan class that
was missed by U.S. intelligence until photos of the submarine appeared
on the Internet. 
    •Development of precision-guided munitions, including new
air-to-ground missiles and new, more accurate warheads. 
    •China's development of surface-to-surface missiles for targeting
U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups. 
    •The importation of advanced weaponry, including Russian
submarines, warships and fighter-bombers. 
    According to officials familiar with the intelligence report, the
word "surprise" is used more than a dozen times to describe U.S.
failures to anticipate or discover Chinese arms development. 
    Many of the missed military developments will be contained in the
Pentagon's annual report to Congress on the Chinese military, which was
due out March 1 but delayed by interagency disputes over its contents. 
    Critics of the study say the report unfairly blames intelligence
collectors for not gathering solid information on the Chinese military
and for failing to plant agents in the communist government. 
    Instead, these officials said, the report looks like a bid to
exonerate analysts within the close-knit fraternity of government China
specialists, who for the past 10 years dismissed or played down
intelligence showing that Beijing was engaged in a major military
buildup. 
    "This report conceals the efforts of dissenting analysts [in the
intelligence community] who argued that China was a threat," one
official said, adding that covering up the failure of intelligence
analysts on China would prevent a major reorganization of the system. 
    A former U.S. official said the report should help expose a
"self-selected group" of specialists who fooled the U.S. government on
China for 10 years. 
    "This group's desire to have good relations with China has
prevented them from highlighting how little they know and suppressing
occasional evidence that China views the United States as its main
enemy." 
    The report has been sent to Thomas Fingar, a longtime intelligence
analyst on China who was recently appointed by John D. Negroponte, the
new director of national intelligence, as his office's top intelligence
analyst. 
    Mr. Negroponte has ordered a series of top-to-bottom reviews of
U.S. intelligence capabilities in the aftermath of the critical report
by the presidential commission headed by Judge Laurence Silberman and
former Sen. Charles Robb, Virginia Democrat. 
    According to the officials, the study was produced by a team of
analysts for the intelligence contractor Centra Technologies. 
    Spokesmen for the CIA and Mr. Negroponte declined to comment. 
    Its main author is Robert Suettinger, a National Security Council
staff member for China during the Clinton administration and the U.S.
intelligence community's top China analyst until 1998. Mr. Suettinger
is traveling outside the country and could not be reached for comment,
a spokesman said. 
    John Culver, a longtime CIA analyst on Asia, was the co-author. 
    Among those who took part in the study were former Defense
Intelligence Agency analyst Lonnie Henley, who critics say was among
those who in the past had dismissed concerns about China's military in
the past 10 years. 
    Also participating in the study was John F. Corbett, a former Army
intelligence analyst and attache who was a China policy-maker at the
Pentagon during the Clinton administration.


Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com


		
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