[extropy-chat] PHREAK OIL: Saudi says they have more than we need...

[Hal Finney]

The book that claims the Saudis are close to peaking in their oil
production is Twilight in the Desert by Matt Simmons.  I haven't read
it but I'm not sure how credible it can be; the Saudis are notoriously
secretive about the details of their oil operations.

The big thing I don't understand is why, if Saudi Arabia is in fact close
to reaching a peak in its oil production, it would want to lie about it
and claim that it can continue to increase.  Credible news of a Saudi
peak would drive up oil prices as the prospect of near-future shortages
becomes more likely.  This would put money in the Saudis' pockets!  By
lying about it, the Saudis are keeping oil prices low and making sure
that they don't make as much money as they could.

I like a good conspiracy as much as the next guy, but don't conspirators
usually aim to make money rather than lose it?  "Come on, guys, here's
our big secret plan to find a new way to lose money!"  It's hard for
me to see the reasoning behind why the Saudis would do this.

If anything, I'd expect them to be tempted to constantly invoke the
spectre of possibly running out in the near future.  Then they would
keep pushing the date out, to keep the tension high and keep prices as
high as possible.  But they certainly aren't doing any such thing, as
the article Mike quoted shows.

Hal Finney