[extropy-chat] what to do

Hal Finney hal at finney.org
Sat Jun 11 04:43:39 UTC 2005


Robin Hanson writes:
> 1. Disagreement Book - Expand "Are Disagreements Honest" and related papers
> into a book, adding new material on data about who is right in real
> disagreements.  I've been telling people this is my plan.  This could
> establish my reputation as a deep thinker on a big issue.  Fun, as there are
> still things for me to learn on this topic.  No real competition on this
> topic (as least re the more technical angle), and it is nicely not aligned
> with an ideology.  But not clear this will really change much in the world.
>
> 2. Medicine Book - Expand "Showing That You Care" into a book, making as
> clear as possible to a wide audience the point that medicine doesn't help
> them on the usual margin.  Alas, this is not a message people want to hear,
> and I may not learn much doing this.

I like these two.  You could combine them and call it the Cassandra
Project, after the Greek heroine who could tell amazing truths about
the future but was cursed never to be believed.  Fill the book with
things like this, truths that people can't and won't accept.

That's what I'd like to see, however it has only a small chance of
satisfying your goal of changing the world.

> 6. Demo Combo Betting - Write software to clearly demonstrate my vision of
> combinatorial markets, then sell the tech or give it away.  If I don't do
> this it may be many years until others do it.  And this tech can dramatically
> lower the cost of idea futures, allowing many more uses.  But this may not
> be the limiting factor to wider use.  Software needs little money, and is
> fully under my control, but I left software long ago because I preferred to
> ponder.

As a professor, can't you get students to work for you?  Maybe you could
have a student develop the software to your specs.  I seem to remember
lots of professors who couldn't code their way out of a paper bag
getting hot shot students to build great-looking demos of their ideas.
You can still ponder, you just have to look over their shoulder from
time to time and make unhelpful suggestions while you stroke your beard
(you do have to grow a beard for this one).

Anyway, I'm being a little facetious.  It's hard for me to take seriously
an appeal about how to change the world.  That's such a difficult task
and the odds against it so great that it seems kind of odd to seriously
make a plan for how to accomplish it.

However, given that this is your goal, I would say that you need to
expect it to take time.  One man exerts only a small influence on the
world, so you have to work over a period of many years in order to make
a significant change.  Your IF concept seems to bring many of your
ideas together.  It provides a mechanism for revealing truths about
the future that bypasses many of our social controls that protect the
conventional wisdom.  It seems to be the most promising direction.

I would suggest in general pursuing projects related to this concept,
continuing to write about it and develop it, look for partnerships with
other groups in getting sample applications into place.  Plan to spend
the rest of your working life on the single minded goal of getting people
to use betting markets to reveal truths that can't come out in other ways.

You don't have to be the manager or the instigator, you can be a
consultant.  I've known a lot of professors who made very good livings
via consulting work.  But you do need a reputation and your expertise has
to be in demand.

You have a good rep but the technology is not yet accepted.  So I think
that is where you need to focus: you have to try to popularize, evangelize
and proselytize for Idea Futures.  Write op-eds pointing to successes.
Get pilot projects going.  Get your students working on this stuff.
Just keep pushing it.

This is where you've had your biggest success so far, and it's where you
will have the most leverage in terms of trying to make it even bigger.
I'd say this is definitely your best path for changing the world.
And as I said it has lots of good side effects on your other interests.
Cassandra may still not be believed but for her trouble at least she
will be able to get rich.

Hal



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