[extropy-chat] IQ vs Uploads

[Dirk Bruere]

Robin Hanson wrote:

> At 10:30 PM 6/10/2005, Dirk Bruere wrote:
>
>>> 3. Upload Futures Papers and Book - Return to and finish my papers 
>>> analyzing
>>> the social implications of future technologies, particularly uploads.
>>
>> I suggest a more modest variant on an analysis of future tech.
>> Namely, the impact of populations with genetically (or otherwise) 
>> enhanced intelligence.
>> Consider the book "IQ and the Wealth of Nations"
>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_IQ
>> Take it from there.
>> Then throw in the effects of longevity - is it a plus or minus?
>> It would certainly make an impact and unlike uploading, people will 
>> relate to it almost immediately since the tech is starting to come 
>> together right now.
>
>
> What most needs analysis are changes that are not captured in existing
> trends. IQ has been increasing and that has had effects for a long time.

At around 3 points per decade.
I think that when that suddenly accelerates to 30 points per decade we 
will see a discontinuity where a quantitative change precipitates a 
qualitative one. Also, such engineering will probably be the hottest 
political topic this century.

> So all of the existing trend-based analysis already captures a big
> similar effect.  The effects of the upload transition are not, however,
> much captured in existing trends.
>
Because the tech is not a gradual process.
It either works and is available, or it isn't.
Plus I don't see it being feasible within 30yrs.
Any writing you do on it will go into the SF section of the bookshop.

-- 
Dirk

The Consensus:-
The political party for the new millenium
http://www.theconsensus.org



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