[extropy-chat] IQ vs Uploads (was: what to do)

[Mike Lorrey]

--- The Avantguardian <avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com> wrote:

> 
> 
> --- Robin Hanson <rhanson at gmu.edu> wrote:
> 
> > What most needs analysis are changes that are not
> > captured in existing
> > trends. IQ has been increasing and that has had
> > effects for a long time.
> > So all of the existing trend-based analysis already
> > captures a big
> > similar effect.  The effects of the upload
> > transition are not, however,
> > much captured in existing trends.
> 
> Hey Robin,
> 
> This is a facinating topic. Why don't you analyze and
> compare the Flynn Effect with Moore's Law? I don't
> know about the shape of Flynn's I.Q. curve vs. time
> but if it is exponential rather than linear then it
> opens up a very cool possibility. Since Moore's law is
> exponential then it might come down to a race between
> the Flynn effect vs. Moore's Law to see who/what will
> dominate in years ahead: A.I. or the minds that CREATE
> them.
>     If the rate constant for the Flynn effect is
> higher than for Moore's Law then no matter how fast
> computers and software advance the human mind might be
> able to keep pace or even lead. I mean after all, Deep
> Blue might have beat Kasporov but who would you invite
> to a cocktail party?

Yes, one conceptual mistake, I believe, with the AI Singularity is the
automatic assumptions that a) desktop AIs will only design smarter
desktop AIs, rather than, say, smarter human augmentation technologies,
and b) that humans will only want to design smarter desktop AIs, rather
than, say, smarter human augmentation technologies. I think the trend
toward wearables and more powerful mobile computing clearly
demonstrates that people want tools that make THEM smarter, not tools
that are smarter than them. Additionally, there is a common
Singulatarian mistake that upgrades just automagically happen, which is
wrong. Humans have to choose to upgrade their machines, have to order
them, have them shipped, installed, etc. The idea of the AI magically
getting out of the control of its humans is ludicrous. Even if an AI is
able to use a corporate persona to order things, it will still take
employees, managers, and a board of directors to allow it to happen and
make it happen. Even then, there is always the electrical cord to
unplug to send a truculent AI 'to its room'.

Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com

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