[extropy-chat] Timescale to Singularity

[Mike Lorrey]

--- BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On 6/17/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> > 
> > This is highly dependent upon greater market achievements. The TCRA
> of
> > 1998 surely delayed the singularity by at least 5 to possibly 8 or
> more
> > years, simply because we should all be working off of fiber optic
> > internet connections rather than cable or DSL or T1. A factor of
> 100
> > difference in bandwidth is 8 Moore generations in bandwidth
> > development.
> > 
> 
> This delay only applies to the US, of course.

The US is still the majority of the network, and the majority of the
technology development. This may change, but other governments will
find they have as much interest in preventing their people from
avoiding taxation and staying outside their government money system.

> In a few years time, if the Chinese brute force AI on the much more
> powerful computers that will become available, then - game over.

This still doesn't mean desktop AI. I expect human level AIs on
supercomputers within the 2010-2015 time frame. Furthermore, the
Chinese have such onerous constraints on their internet that IMHO
concious thought across the network is impossible (i.e. search engines
don't allow you to search for the words "freedom" or "liberty" in
China, according to the latest stories).

Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com

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