[extropy-chat] Atheism in Decline

[Giu1i0 Pri5c0]

As you say, it depends on the definition og God. If we take the
definition that most people must have in mind, that God is a being who
stands outside the universe, created it and can  intervene at will
(this btw is compatible with a simulation theory), there is no way to
assign a probability on the basis of available evidence.
G.


On Mon,  7 Mar 2005 18:44:50 -0800 (PST), "Hal Finney" <hal at finney.org> wrote:
> I'd suggest applying some of the basic principles of Bayesian reasoning
> to the question of atheism vs belief in God.  Bayesian reasoning works
> on the basis of probability.  The question is not, do you believe in God.
> The question is, what, in your mind, is the probability that God exists?
> 
> Presumably, religious believers would give this a high value.  Atheists
> would give it a low value.  And agnostics, perhaps, would be somewhere
> in between.
> 
> But is this right?  Is the only difference between atheists and agnostics
> the numerical estiamte they would give for the probability that God
> exists?  Or is there something else about this difference, something
> qualitative which Bayesian probability reasoning doesn't capture?
> 
> This analysis brings up another point as well.  If someone asks you,
> "What is the probability that God exists?" you may well answer, "Define
> God."  There are many notions of God in the literature, and some are
> more probable than others.  There may even be as many notions of God
> as there are people; or even more, for our conceptions of God probably
> change from time to time.  Until you know which concept of God they are
> asking about, you can't give a meaningful answer to the probability of
> his existence.
> 
> Hal