[extropy-chat] Re: Overconfidence and meta-rationality

[Robin Hanson]

At 03:00 PM 3/14/2005, Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:
>>The pattern is so ubiquitous that it seems hard to believe there isn't a 
>>large genetic component.
>
>I don't think the correct term for this is "genetic component" ... The 
>correct phrasing would probably be, "it seems hard to believe this doesn't 
>arise from our species psychology" ...

I'll accept your correction.

>Once upon a time I believed I was right and others wrong about a certain 
>issue, even though I was only five years old, even though I was surrounded 
>by people older and wiser than me, who said to me: you'll understand when 
>you're older, ... But the Jewish religion still seems to me ridiculous, 
>... this thing happened in the real world, and it is therefore appropriate 
>to treat it as information.

And you never ever disagreed with your parents except on this one occasion, 
when you were later proven right?  Might there not be other occasions which 
don't come quite as gleefully to your recall, because you were later proven 
wrong?  Even the most rational estimators are wrong sometimes.  We should 
prefer to infer bias from patterns of error, rather than from individual 
cases.

>my parents could have used their greater life experience to defeat me - 
>had my parents actually *used* their intellects, ... The lesson ... that 
>rationality defeated rationalization. ...  I don't much credit the beliefs 
>of people whom I don't think are applying their actual intellects to a 
>question.

But the key question is: in ordinary practice how can you tell whether 
someone is reasoning or rationalizing, applying or not applying their 
intellect?  I agree that something like this is basically what I use 
informally to justify my disagreements.  But it bothers me greatly that I 
find it hard to be clear about what exactly are the clues that indicate 
this, and what is my evidence that such clues correlate as I claim.






Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323