[extropy-chat] Science and Fools

[Robin Hanson]

At 06:33 AM 3/16/2005, Brett Paatsch wrote:
>>What if I were to define "cryonics can work" as something like, a
>>person frozen with today's technology is successfully revived within,
>>say, 100 years, with substantially identical memories and personality.
>>I would give this odds of about 1 in 100.
>
>But perhaps before we even go down that path it is worth asking could
>each of us accept the judgement of  *any* third party judging organisation
>however ideally configured with relevant expertise, (scientific, logical,
>linguistic etc) as being better than our own present judgement, and better
>than our own then, our future judgement (biased judgement) when such
>judgement is rendered?

I really don't think the judging organization is the problem.  Dead vs.
alive is usually a pretty wide gulf without that many borderline cases.
I'd want to be clear if uploading counts as revival, but otherwise, sure
I'd accept many third party judgements.  Harder problems are making bets
that pay interest over such a long time, and trusting the judges and folks
holding the money to still be there when time comes to judge.




Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323