[extropy-chat] Which Side Does The Informed Media Favor?

[Robin Hanson]

I just produced the following draft, which tries a new statistical approach
to the question of which side is "right" in a media controversy.  I applied
it to the coverage of PAM, but but it might also apply to other
controversies, such cloning or transhumanism more generally.

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http://hanson.gmu.edu/PAMpress.pdf

            The Informed Press Favored the Policy Analysis Market
                       by Robin Hanson, March 2005

The Policy Analysis Market (PAM), otherwise known as ``terrorism futures,"
burst into public view in a firestorm of condemnation on July 28, 2003, and
was canceled the next day.  We look the impression given of PAM by 396 media
articles, and how that impression varies with six indicators of article
information: mentioning someone with firsthand knowledge, time since the
firestorm, article length, a news versus an opinion style, and periodical
prestige and period.  All six indicators significantly and substantially
predict more favorable impressions of PAM.  A multiple regression predicts
that a two thousand word news article in a prestigious monthly publication
one hundred days later that mentioned an insider would give a solidly
favorable impression of PAM.
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Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323