[extropy-chat] Taiwan (was: US will cease to exist in 2007)

[J. Andrew Rogers]

Mike Lorrey wrote:
> Not likely. Chinese popular sentiment is that a) Taiwan is part of
> China, b) any secession action by Taiwan should be met with force. The
> Peoples Congress just passed authorization of force approval.


Don't confuse the Chinese government with the land area that is China. 
It is a fragmented and complex country, and the communist party has to
put on quite a dog-and-pony show just to maintain their control.  They
no longer have the ability to rule with an iron fist within their own
borders, as there are too many other powerful competing interests they
have to keep reasonably unagitated.


> China is rehearsing the invasion NOW.


You do know that Taiwan is an island quite a distance off the continent,
right?  China maintains a littoral Navy with a tiny and third-rate
"green water" force (Taiwan would be a "green water" operation) and no
history of competent naval operations in modern times.  And their
anti-submarine capability is simply obsolete, leaving those ships
vulnerable as they cross the channel.

I'd love to know how they'll mount an "invasion" with that kind of force
projection capability.  China can't project more than a few divisions,
and with such a meager and obsolete force that they would lose most of
these assets to first-line Taiwanese defenses (which are comparable to
what most European countries can field, technology-wise).  


> They are deploying their first generation
> nuclear missile sub fleet NOW, w/ missiles capable of hitting anywhere
> in the US from the west coast.


The subs are obsolete by our standards. If we thought they were a
threat, we'd be have hunter subs on their tail in no time.  Not that it
matters, since China would have a difficult enough time with Taiwan
without giving the US (and likely Japan) an excuse to scuttle every
piece of hardware that leaves their shore by sea or air.

In case you haven't been paying attention, superior battlefield
technology spanks quantity these days, and China is both inexperienced
at this type of warfare AND using outdated technology.  They may have
millions upon millions of soldiers, but they'll be sitting on the
shoreline annoying no one but themselves.

The bottom line is that China has no credible military lever against the
US, even the "we'll go crazy and flip out on you" gambit is a loser
because the US would know it is a bluff.  They aren't invading Taiwan to
drag themselves into a full-scale war with the US -- there are easier
ways to accomplish that.


> They have announced they are going to
> "diversify" their currency reserve portfolio.


So?


> They have started a breakneck project to revitalize and
> expand massive silver deposits.


So?  The price of silver is marginally over the cost of production --
most silver production is incidental from copper, gold, and lead mining.
 I'm not sure what increasing silver production is going to get them,
since the price can't go much lower and there is not a lot of profit in
it anyway.


> They have signed an agreement with the Phillipines, Indonesia,
> Malaysia, and Vietnam over the Spratly oil fields for joint 
> exploration and exploitation.


That's nice.  Unfortunately, they won't see any oil from this for many,
many years, so I do not see the relevance to your hypothesized impending
invasion of Taiwan.


> China is over 1 billion people. Taiwan is only 28 million. Invading
> Taiwan would be a cakewalk for China provided they put the US pacific
> fleet out of commission either militarily or economically.


So now the Chinese can walk on water?  That will be a several day march.

Your entire hypothesis is based on absurd premises.  The Chinese could
not move enough soldiers to do the job today in the absence of the US
Navy and the Taiwanese naval defenses.  And in the real world, there
*are* Taiwanese naval defenses and twitchy US and Japanese military
assets.  The idea that the Chinese have the capability to put the US
Navy out of commission is ludicrous on its face; a 20-30 year military
technology advantage in modern times is all but insurmountable.  And
that is presuming that the Chinese have a significant quantity of these
assets themselves, and in many categories they do not.

The bottom line is that China would have to engage in a massive overhaul
of their naval capabilities to have a prayer, and previous attempts to
do so have been more failure than success.  Assuming a best case
scenario and massive resource expenditure, it would take them many years
to have a fighting chance, at least a decade in all probability.


[...more grossly unrealistic scenarios elided...]


Honestly Mike, your entire scenario is very loosely strung together bit
of fantasy with only marginal grounding in reality.  China wants Taiwan,
but they are not willing to risk a direct military confrontation with
the US to do it, it is doubtful they could handle Taiwan currently
anyway due to force projection credibility issues, and the current
Chinese political structure also has to protect itself from other
factions inside its own borders that would see aggressive stupidity as
an opportunity.  China taking Taiwan by military force may happen some
time many years down the road, but not any time soon.


j. andrew rogers