[extropy-chat] Taiwan

[Dirk Bruere]

Mike Lorrey wrote:

>--- Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>  
>
>>On Thu, Mar 31, 2005 at 01:55:32PM +0100, Dirk Bruere wrote:
>>
>>    
>>
>>>>Do you have a specific scenario, suggesting how exactly Moore
>>>>        
>>>>
>>(assuming, it
>>    
>>
>>>>will hold up for the next 15 years) will result in the
>>>>        
>>>>
>>Singularity?
>>    
>>
>>>Looking at what's being cooked up in the labs now leads me to
>>>      
>>>
>>believe 
>>    
>>
>>>that Moore's Law (approximately) will continue beyond 15yrs.
>>>      
>>>
>>Ok, it *does* look good; I wouldn't bet on it, though. There are some
>>unresolved issues (e.g. leak currents and power dissipation density),
>>and 
>>Moore *will* have a discontinuity around 2012..2015, 
>>unless molecular electronics is there just in time to take the torch.
>>    
>>
>
>I was under the impression we were going to shift to photonic circuits
>within 3-5 years. That alone is a huge reduction in size and power
>requirements. What gives?
>
>
>  
>
We've been ready for that shift for all my working life ie at least 25yrs.
Here's a golden oldie - the transphasor (optical transistor), invented 1979
http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/0022-3735/15/1/004

And then we have all those miracle materials like GaAs that will speed 
up computers by a factor of 10 etc...

-- 
Dirk

The Consensus:-
The political party for the new millenium
http://www.theconsensus.org



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