[extropy-chat] calling all bayesians

[spike]

> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Marc Geddes
> 
> .9642^131 = 0.0084 (approx)
> 
> Is this the result you're getting?


Actually no.  But your comment:

> Well, since we are given no other information, we can
> only assume a 50% chance that all 19 tested would be
> found to be good and a 50% chance that they wouldn't...

...confirms what I did conclude: that there is not enough
information in the problem as stated to calculate an
answer.  I turned it around: by assuming a droob reliability,
what is the probability that the destructive testing of
the 19 spare units would result in all-good?  That
method demonstrates the circular reasoning inherent
in the problem.

spike