[extropy-chat] calling all bayesians

spike spike66 at comcast.net
Thu May 12 05:10:49 UTC 2005

> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Marc Geddes
> .9642^131 = 0.0084 (approx)
> Is this the result you're getting?

Actually no.  But your comment:

> Well, since we are given no other information, we can
> only assume a 50% chance that all 19 tested would be
> found to be good and a 50% chance that they wouldn't...

...confirms what I did conclude: that there is not enough
information in the problem as stated to calculate an
answer.  I turned it around: by assuming a droob reliability,
what is the probability that the destructive testing of
the 19 spare units would result in all-good?  That
method demonstrates the circular reasoning inherent
in the problem.


More information about the extropy-chat mailing list