[extropy-chat] calling all bayesians

[Marc Geddes]

>...confirms what I did conclude: that there is not
>enough
>information in the problem as stated to calculate an
>answer.

But you asked what is the probability *given only that
information*.  That question does have an answer when
re-phrased in terms of the language of the multiverse.

You are really asking:  Out of all the possible
universes which could exist where this situation
presents itself (150 droobs manufactured, 19 from the
batch tested, found to be good), in what proportion of
these universes are all remaining 131 droobs found to
be good?

There's a definite number, and I think it's 1/118 for
the reasons I gave. 

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'The brain is wider than the sky'
http://www.bartleby.com/113/1126.html

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