[extropy-chat] calling all bayesians

Marc Geddes marc_geddes at yahoo.co.nz
Thu May 12 05:38:25 UTC 2005

>...confirms what I did conclude: that there is not
>information in the problem as stated to calculate an

But you asked what is the probability *given only that
information*.  That question does have an answer when
re-phrased in terms of the language of the multiverse.

You are really asking:  Out of all the possible
universes which could exist where this situation
presents itself (150 droobs manufactured, 19 from the
batch tested, found to be good), in what proportion of
these universes are all remaining 131 droobs found to
be good?

There's a definite number, and I think it's 1/118 for
the reasons I gave. 


THE BRAIN is wider than the sky,  
  For, put them side by side,  
The one the other will include  
  With ease, and you beside. 

-Emily Dickinson

'The brain is wider than the sky'


Please visit my web-site:

Mathematics, Mind and Matter


Find local movie times and trailers on Yahoo! Movies.

More information about the extropy-chat mailing list