[extropy-chat] calling all bayesians

spike spike66 at comcast.net
Fri May 13 06:25:31 UTC 2005

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Marc Geddes

> ...  So I suggest that spike run simulations
> testing all possible failure rates and pretend that
> all of the simulations as a whole are the
> 'multiverse'.  Then find the total number of
> simulations in which there were 131 good droobs and
> ask what proportion of these had 19 spares all testing
> good (but be sure to add up the results from all
> possible failure rate simulations to get a SINGLE
> number - i.e spike must not treat the different
> simulated failure rates as being seperate domains - he
> needs to treat the whole set as a single entity to
> simulate the 'multiverse')...

Thats the conclusion I came to.

Today I learned that there have been 4386 droobs
manufactured and a total of 9 have failed.  With that info,
I was able to use the monte carlo to find an estimate, which
agreed with the closed form solution.  Now you have enough
info to solve the problem.

This is a fascinating discussion, which I would like to
continue.  This evening has been taken up by my scrambling
to get an ancient motorcycle ready to roll for a trip to
Oregon, so that I might play amateur cowboy this weekend.  

Surely I will elicit gales of derisive laughter from
cow-savvy observers, but this is OK, for I know that
derisive laughter is the purest expression of disdainful
mirth.  Think of the last time you had true uncontrolled
diaper-wetting hilarity.  It was not at some clever joke or
sophisticated comedic drama, but rather from some silly goof 
clumsily attempting something stunt far beyond his expertise.

Furthermore, I know that should any of these snarky cowboys
show up at my office and attempt to perform rocket science,
they would surely make a bigger mess of it than I am likely
to make of the cowboy business.  In any case, the motorcycle
ride should be fun.


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