[extropy-chat] Should You be Freaking About Oil Peaking?

[Hal Finney]

Max More writes:
> Since Hal just posted a follow-up on peak oil, it seems timely to post a
> piece I just wrote for ManyWorlds. A slightly earlier and shorter version
> (until 5pm EST today, when the version below will replace it) is here,
> with links to related items:
> http://www.manyworlds.com/exploreCO.aspx?coid=CO51605116448
> Hal -- I especially want to thank you. I drew on your posts on this
> topic.

I thought it was a very good article.  One small error was that the
U.S. used 35 quadrillion BTUs of oil/year back in 1973, not quadrillion
barrels.

BTW there is a series this week in the Canadian newspaper The Globe And
Mail all about Peak Oil and its implications for Canada and the rest
of the world.  Canada is an especially interesting case because along
with its large conventional oil reserves, it has enormous potential
in its tar sands.  If technology can be developed to turn that to oil
economically, Canada will rival Saudi Arabia as an oil producer.

http://www.energybulletin.net/ is a good site for Peak Oil news.
It has been publishing links to the http://www.theglobeandmail.com/
stories, http://www.energybulletin.net/6241.html and
http://www.energybulletin.net/6195.html .  More stories will be published
throughout the week.

Especially interesting are today's stories about enhanced recovery
operations allowing old "played out" fields to become economic producers
again, which Max also mentioned.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050523.wxroilgas23/BNStory/Business/

"For Mr. Issacs, the rising price of crude is the key change. Just as
important as today's high prices is the prospect of elevated and stable
prices for years to come. That long-term trend is absolutely crucial
to give the oil industry the economic cushion to pursue enhanced oil
recovery, which by its very nature is more expensive."  These improvements
could potentially double Canada's conventional oil reserves.

Of course, "today's high prices" are actually down quite a bit in the
past few weeks.  Oil hit $58/bbl and is now at $48.  There seems to be
a general sentiment that $40 will be the new floor, but there are no
guarantees about that.  A year ago it was at $25 and nobody would have
predicted a doubling.  These new players in the Canadian oil fields are
hoping and praying that the price holds up.

Hal