[extropy-chat] Should You be Freaking About Oil Peaking?

[kevinfreels.com]

Is it really? Or is that just based on the current crop yields? Are we
already at the maximum amount of crops per square foot of land? I would
think not. What is that theoretical maximum anyways?
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Mike Lorrey" <mlorrey at yahoo.com>
To: "ExI chat list" <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Tuesday, May 24, 2005 7:27 PM
Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Should You be Freaking About Oil Peaking?


> As spike has amply demonstrated in the past, the numbers aren't there
> for ethanol. Beyond being a smog reducing additive, it is too expensive
> to use as a primary fuel, and producing enough of it to fuel our cars
> would take more arable land than we have.
>
> --- "kevinfreels.com" <kevin at kevinfreels.com> wrote:
> > I'm curious. Does anyone know of anythign that couldn;t be modified
> > to run
> > on ethanol? What about pure ethanol? I know that currently ethanol is
> > basically poisoned so people can't get drunk off of it and gasoline
> > is part
> > of the poison mixture, but is the gasoline itself necessary? Can
> > aviation
> > fuel and be made of ethanol? Or more correctly, can sufficient
> > aviation
> > engines be built for use with ethanol? Has anyone tested an ethanol
> > jet
> > engine or does ethanol just not carry enough energy?
> >
> > I really don;t know a lot about ethanol, but it seems to me that if
> > we are
> > subsidizing farmers to not grow corn, and at the same time oil is
> > getting
> > too expensive, maybe we should be putting a lot more emphasis on
> > ethanol
> > production. There's no need to shrink the automobile to a point where
> > people
> > hate using them. It may work in europe, but Americans love their
> > cars.
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message ----- 
> > From: "Mike Lorrey" <mlorrey at yahoo.com>
> > To: "ExI chat list" <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> > Sent: Monday, May 23, 2005 11:34 PM
> > Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Should You be Freaking About Oil Peaking?
> >
> >
> > >
> > > --- Hal Finney <hal at finney.org> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Of course, "today's high prices" are actually down quite a bit in
> > the
> > > > past few weeks.  Oil hit $58/bbl and is now at $48.  There seems
> > to
> > > > be a general sentiment that $40 will be the new floor, but there
> > are
> > > > no guarantees about that.  A year ago it was at $25 and nobody
> > would
> > > > have predicted a doubling.  These new players in the Canadian oil
> > > > fields are hoping and praying that the price holds up.
> > >
> > > If oil floors out at $40, there is no peak oil... $25.00/bbl, which
> > I
> > > predicted would be the price a month after the start of the Iraq
> > war
> > > (as it happened) was followed with a 40% int'l market devaluation
> > of
> > > the dollar as many national governments delinked their currencies
> > from
> > > the dollar, shifting to the euro, so $25 then is $35.00 now on
> > > international markets.
> > >
> > > This means that at a $40.00 price floor, oil prices have risen in
> > > reality $5.00 in two years. This is in reality 5-6% annual
> > inflation in
> > > energy prices. Significantly above average, but nothing to write
> > home
> > > about. With current $48 prices, that means a real rise in oil
> > prices of
> > > $8.00 (you need to devaluate the actual price rise by 40% as well
> > to
> > > get a good comparison to then-year dollars.)
> > >
> > > Assuming China, Korea, and Japan don't individually or together
> > dump
> > > the dollar en masse (Korea has already made motions and China is
> > > already selling off dollars in a 'basket diversification' move), we
> > > shouldn't see prices rise higher than that. Of course, I wouldn't
> > put
> > > it past them. The faster they (China) price us out of the middle
> > > eastern oil market, and leave us working on our domestic supplies,
> > the
> > > sooner they get an advantage in the eventual face-off over Taiwan.
> > >
> > > Mike Lorrey
> > > Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
> > > "Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
> > > It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
> > >                                       -William Pitt (1759-1806)
> > > Blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
> > >
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>
> Mike Lorrey
> Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
> "Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
> It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
>                                       -William Pitt (1759-1806)
> Blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com
>
>
>
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