[extropy-chat] against ID

[Jef Allbright]

On 11/19/05, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Sat, Nov 19, 2005 at 02:03:22PM -0500, Harvey Newstrom wrote:
>
> > But many transhumanists do believe in ID in the guise of the
> > Simulation Argument.
>
> Not this transhumanist.
>
> Can we see a show of hands? Who of you here actually believes in
> SA in a strong sense? I.e., would you be willing to bet your life
> on it?
>

I see no evidence to support any strong belief that we are living in a
simulation.  It seems unlikely to me from the standpoint of efficient
use of computing resources.

Nick Bostrom, credited with the Simulation Argument says the following
in his FAQ:

"The argument only shows that at least one of three possibilities
obtains, but it does not tell us which one(s). One can thus accept the
simulation argument and reject the simulation hypothesis (i.e. that we
are in a simulation)."

"Personally, I assign less than 50% probability to the simulation
hypothesis – rather something like 20%."

- Jef