[extropy-chat] 22nd Century Electronics
Adrian Tymes
wingcat at pacbell.net
Thu Oct 6 00:14:59 UTC 2005
--- "nvitamore at austin.rr.com" <nvitamore at austin.rr.com> wrote:
> Does anyone have an idea of what electronic (manufacturing) might be
> in the
> next 100 years?
100 years is way too far to safely predict. That said, extrapolating a
few current trends (in ways that others before me have extrapolated),
here are some guesses:
* DIY is already on the rise, with more and more prefabricated
components for the user to assemble, and in extreme cases personal
fabrication machines to make those components. The range of
materials they can process is presently quite limited (especially
WRT metals), but it seems safe to say that personal fabrication
machines will be able to tackle these within a few decades, and will
be at least as common as power tools are today.
* At some point, probably before 100 years, a sufficient number of
these machines will be deployed in some urban area (city, or maybe
more likely city-equivalents that have yet to be built, like
high-population space colonies or city-in-a-building arcologies, but
only if one of those trends takes off) as to make it viable to
install feedstock pipes as a utility, just like water and
electricity. (This would also take care of recycling the scraps from
subtractive milling machines, which otherwise might become a minor
"industrial" pollution problem.)
* This also means you'd see the current "open source vs. proprietary"
software battle in hardware. Of course, we are already seeing the
start of that today, with services that let you write your own chip,
upload the design, and pay a fee, then they print a few copies of
your chip and ship them to you. See http://www.opencores.com/ and
others. Moving the chip writers into homes would just make that more
prominent. Also, cheap custom chip fabrication has to work at
coarser resolutions than high-end plants like those producing Intel's
and AMD's wares, but even if Moore's Law slows down as we near atomic
scale electronics, it's likely that personal manufacturing facilities
will catch up to atomic scale in 100 years.
* Of course, Intel and AMD probably won't passively sit around as the
public catches up. See the already heavy R&D in quantum computing,
DNA computing, and all-optical computing. It may be an open question
which one will dominate (or if something else will), but in 100
years, top-end supercomputers (and maybe personal computers) will
likely not rely on electrons as we now use them. (I'd give slightly
better odds to all-optical, at least in some form, for personal
computing since the other two can speed up parallel processing but
not - at least for poorly-parallelizable problems - serial
processing. Also, all-optical doesn't need the special cooling or
nutrients of the other two when doing nothing, so it'd be easier to
maintain.)
* Also expect to see more and more of the industry shift to robotics
for manufacturing, even aside from the above-mentioned personal
fabrication machines (which need robots because the whole point is
sellable trained labor, and even in 100 years it seems unlikely that
society would accept shrink-wrapped humans). Once you get the
manufacturing process down, you simply take the movements you
guided the robot arms through during R&D, possibly refine them, then
copy and paste to the factory floor. Also, as robots get cheaper, it
becomes more feasable to flood a manufacturing site with robots, send
them through dangerous (but cheap) processes, and if (when) they get
damaged...eh, they're cheap, buy another. (Which is very much not
the situation today: human labor is often much cheaper than robots,
especially where minimal skill is required.)
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