[extropy-chat] Futures Past

[Eliezer S. Yudkowsky]

Harvey Newstrom wrote:
> 
> And for those who doubt these predictions:  There really were 
> predictions of singularities, space colonies, robot presidents,  
> nanotech by the year 2000 made by people on this extropians list.  And 
> it still goes on today.  People on the SIAI lists really talk about an 
> AI singularity within a decade.

Look, I remember when I was dumb enough to think that I could say the 
Singularity had a 90% probability of occurring between 2005 and 2025 
with the median point at 2018.  But I haven't been that dumb since I 
read "Judgment Under Uncertainty:  Heuristics and Biases", which was, I 
think, around 2003 or so.  I just want to note that "people on the SIAI 
lists" could be anyone who hasn't actually gotten themselves kicked off 
as yet.  It doesn't mean SIAI endorses the viewpoint.

I do endorse the viewpoint that we could get transhuman AI within 10 
years, or 5 years, or 1 year, because I don't know all the projects in 
play in detail, and neither do you.  I'm rather more skeptical about the 
Friendliness part, I'm afraid.

If you go about being dismayed by what some people do, you are doomed to 
be dismayed forever.  Anyone can sign up for these mailing lists.  I 
think it a great enough demand that we ask for our very best to get it 
right.

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence