[extropy-chat] Futures Past

[Robin Hanson]

At 02:04 AM 10/10/2005, Harvey Newstrom wrote:
>>>My real interest is whether transhumanists have been better at 
>>>predicting the future than mainstream predictors.
>>
>>If this is your interest there is really no practical substitute 
>>for the sort of data analysis I proposed earlier today.  You need 
>>to collect predictions by transhumanists and by others and look at 
>>the coefficient on TRANSHUMANIST? when accuracy is the dependent 
>>variable.  I know it is more fun to flame and bait, selectively 
>>recalling the predictions one got right and others got wrong ...
>
>Why do you think I am asking for examples?  Why do you think Robert 
>posted his early claims and compared them with actual results?  ... 
>So far, everybody seems to be having a cordial and accurate recall 
>of our past.  ... Come on, and join in the fun.

I didn't mean to imply that people were not enjoying themselves, nor 
that the examples being recalled could not be included in such an 
analysis.  I meant to call attention to the difference between such 
informal conversation and the sort of systematic analysis needed.




Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323