[extropy-chat] Inside Vs. Outside Forecasts

[Robin Hanson]

At 03:00 PM 10/11/2005, Adrian Tymes wrote:
>It has frequently been observed that predictions overpromise in the
>nearterm, and underpromise in the long term.

I've heard this claim made too, but I wonder: has anyone ever
systematically collected evidence to test this claim?


Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323