[extropy-chat] Inside Vs. Outside Forecasts

[Dirk Bruere]

On 10/12/05, Robin Hanson <rhanson at gmu.edu> wrote:
>
>
> It still seems to me that this group tends to base its forecasts a
> bit too much on constructing scenarios, and a bit too little on
> statistics about similar past situations.
>

I don't think so, except in very specific predictions.
The two key Transhumanist predictions, agreed by both insiders and outsiders
is that computing power will continue along a steepening exponential curve
for at least two more decades; and that the bio sciences are entering the
steep part of exponential growth similar to computer tech circa 1975 (or
thereabouts). General predictions can be drawn from both of these
observations.

Dirk
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