[extropy-chat] Inside Vs. Outside Forecasts

[Eliezer S. Yudkowsky]

Adrian Tymes wrote:
> 
> Then again, is there data to prove the opposite case, which
> you are asserting?  Has outside view vs. inside view actually been
> statistically measured in any given case?

Yes, of course, that's what this thread is all about.  Whenever measured 
statistically, the outside view wins overwhelmingly.  See e.g. "Timid 
Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking" by 
Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo, as previously referenced in this 
thread, which you can find in the edited volume "Choices, Values, and 
Frames".

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence