[extropy-chat] Inside Vs. Outside Forecasts

[Dirk Bruere]

On 10/12/05, Robert J. Bradbury <bradbury at aeiveos.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> On Wed, 12 Oct 2005, Dirk Bruere wrote:
>
> > I don't think so, except in very specific predictions.
> > The two key Transhumanist predictions, agreed by both insiders and
> outsiders
> > is that computing power will continue along a steepening exponential
> curve
> > for at least two more decades;
>
> The "agreement" doesn't mean that they are right. You have about 4, maybe
> 5
> generations left in terms of current processes (go read the ITRS/SEMATECH
> roadmap reports). Then things are going to have to shift significantly.
> So I would say you have a decade -- maybe 15 years.
>
>
I have a 1982 copy of the Transactions of the IEEE. In it there is an
article which explains in great detail why the ultimate limits to Si
technology would be 100nm and why anything smaller would not work and new
processes would have to be found. IIRC labs are running experimental Si at
22nm.

Given that carbon nanotubes have already been built into gigabit NVRAM I
think 15 yrs for going to new tech is a tad pessimistic.

Dirk
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