[extropy-chat] three coins in a fountain, part 2: the bayesian angle

[Eliezer S. Yudkowsky]

spike wrote:
> 
> Suppose you are taking a class in Bayesian reasoning.  
> 
> Your professor decides your grade based on competition 
> with the other students: a third of the class will get 
> an A, a third gets a B, a third a C.  

PPS:  This aspect renders the entire problem one of game theory, not 
probability theory.  Your optimum strategy depends on the strategy 
pursued by other players.  What you write down *depends* on the 
probability you assign to the professor thinking each of the given 
answers is correct, but it does not *equal* the probability you assign 
to the professor thinking that answer is correct.

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence