[extropy-chat] three coins in a fountain, part 3: the test
spike
spike66 at comcast.net
Sat Oct 22 00:23:46 UTC 2005
On 10/22/05, spike <spike66 at comcast.net> wrote:
...
Assign confidence levels to these scenarios
a) OJ did it and Fuhrman planted the glove
b) OJ did it and Fuhrman did not plant the glove
c) OJ did not do it and Fuhrman planted the glove
d) All other possible scenarios
Given that Furman took the fifth when asked if he planted the glove, I'd say
he planted the glove.
Or is it routine, when US police are asked in court whether they planted
evidence, to say "I do not wish to answer that on the grounds I may
incriminate myself"?
Dirk
As I recall, Fuhrman took the fifth when asked if he had ever
manufactured evidence, not when asked specifically about the
glove. Still, if you think Fuhrman did it, you still must distribute
confidence between choices a) and c) above.
But this thread is not about OJ, it is about an idea for
making a test with only a few questions that will separate the
contestants. In the traditional method, any 10 question test
with 1000 participants will yield many equivalent results.
I saw this with the recent Google campaign. You may recall
that Google was hoping to hire a number of new employees. They
had a billboard in Mountain View which had only the words
{first ten digit prime in consecutive digits of e}.com
I saw the billboard on the way to work, set up a macro and
had the answer within minutes. Went to that site, which had
another more difficult question, which led to another site, which
had 20 IQ test questions. It was a cool game, but with 20
questions, you will get a bunch of people with results in each
of the 20 possible scores.
spike
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