[extropy-chat] re: news in perspective

[Eugen Leitl]

On Thu, Sep 01, 2005 at 01:03:11PM -0700, Samantha Atkins wrote:

> This is surely not the point.  There are many severe weaknesses in  
> the US economic situation.  I would give an 80% probability of an  

I don't know what's going to happen, but if anything Big Bad happens
it won't be because of a mere hurricane wreck. It would be but a trigger.

I'm really recommending Jared Diamond's "Collapse". It's very pop science, and
there are purportedly much better books, but this doesn't mean it doesn't 
contain applicable meta level diagnostics and algorithms. 

> economic downturn worse than 1987 in the next year.  I would give 90%  
> odds of an economic downturn of more than Great Depression magnitude  
> before 2010.  This level of economic event can cause very major  
> disruption of all of our plans, dreams and hopes and ruin millions of  

I much agree that We're Having Problems, which at best are delaying things
considerably already. What do we do about it, though? We here, on
this list? I can't see anything useful beyond personal scope plans.
Being part of a solution catalyst would mean succeeding beyond the wildest 
dreams.

> lives.  Major economic crises also can lead to major wars.  This is  
> not "just money" or in the least unimportant.   Economic chaos of  
> sufficient magnitude leads to a lot more dead people.

Military conflicts is both a cause of collapse and a terminal diagnostic.
Many things must be already have gone to the crapper before resource
distribution wars break out, and when they do the curtain is soon to
follow. 

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a>
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ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820            http://www.leitl.org
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