[extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from agametheorystandpoint ?

[spike]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
...
> >
> > User, I could see ethanol as a transition phase, where we add
> 
> Why ethanol, on earth? Why not synmethanol? Or biodiesel, if
> you absolutely have to curry favors to big dirty agribusiness?...

Synmethanol and biodiesel are fine, those two guys
can play too.  I mentioned ethanol because it is easy
to make and burn in current vehicles.  Biodiesel will
be useful for existing Diesel engines.  In both cases,
I am looking toward the current infrastructure as 
much as possible during the long transition away from
fossil fuels.

> Why not simply lighter, more efficient vehicles (my car averages
> about 6.2 l/100 km, which is probably half or less of the typical
> U.S. car, not even SUV)?...

Eventually yes.  Think about the transition phase.

> 
> Alcohols are too corrosive for the current infrastructure, unless
> used just as additives -- but why bother with footnotes?

We will need them.  I suspect the answer will come from many directions.

> 
> What is the half life of a modern car? A few years, typically.
> It would make more sense to just stick to new vehicles...

Good question.  I would think it is about 8 years.  We
will have them for a long time.  Cars as we know them
will still be with us when you and I take the old nitrogen
bath Gene.  {8-|   {8-]


> 
> > An ethanol-gasoline mix could carry part of the load
> > while we gear up nuclear and coal fired power plants as well
> 
> Nuke? Coal? Are you crazy?

No, we will need those guys too.  I suspect when the
proles are faced with the choice of either a nuke
plant in the back yard, a coal plant in the back yard
or no power, we will choose the nuke plant in loud
unison.

> 
> ... Biodiesel would be
> a far smaller mistake, if you insist to make any...

I'm suggesting that we will have biodiesel, ethanol,
synmethanol, full plug-in EVs, turbodiesel series
hybrids, parallel hybrids, and good old fashioned
gas-only V8 Detroits sharing the roads for the next
five decades.

...
> 
> Or you could just use a price ratchet via taxes, allowing
> a monotonous slow increase in prices. We've been at
> >6.5 US$/gallon for a long time. You'll get used to it, too...

Here is where I disagree.  The U.S. and state governments
do not *really* have the leeway to tax motor fuels this
high.  If they try, their political opponents can win
an election merely by promising to reduce fuel taxes, or
any taxes that mess with our cars.  We saw in Taxifornia
a governor recalled a year into his second term, not
because he was merely corrupt (we would tolerate corrupt)
but rather because he *legitimately* raised the license 
fees for cars.  The license fees on cars was a flat tax. 
A flat tax hits the portemonnaie of the poor man much
harder than it does the rich. 

A fuel tax is also a flat tax in a sense, but more than 
that: a fuel tax is one that everyone pays over and over 
and over, since everything is made of fuel: the stuff at 
the grocery store, well, the stuff at every store.  A fuel 
tax is a highly inflationary tax, and it is very 
destructive to any economy.  Americans will not tolerate 
fuel taxes!  We will skip the bit about hurling the tea 
into Boston Harbor, go straight to hurling the politicians 
into the Patomac River.  We would vote for anyone who
promises to end the fuel tax, and I myself would be at
the front of the line with the blue finger.

I would suggest an alternative: during the transition from
fossil fuels we remove taxes and restrictions on any private 
manufacturing of alcohol, biodiesel or anything that can be
used as a motor fuel.  With no tax, we could produce oil 
equivalents at about four bucks a gallon, perhaps less.  We would 
temporarily relax restrictions on water usage, such as pumping 
out of rivers, to establish corn, potatoes and rice on land 
that is currently not economical to farm.  It will cost us
a few fish, but it beats the alternatives.  

spike