[extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theorystandpoint ?

spike spike66 at comcast.net
Sun Sep 4 05:22:50 UTC 2005



> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-
> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Mike Lorrey
> Sent: Saturday, September 03, 2005 8:45 PM
> To: ExI chat list
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game
> theorystandpoint ?
> --- Samantha Atkins <sjatkins at mac.com> wrote:
> 
> > >
> > As I used to work in (or at least on the outskirts of) the industry I
> > can attest that this is more or less correct.  There are no known
> > technologies that can significantly increase the productivity of a
> > field without shortening its productive lifetime ...
> 
> Not quite. We recover an amazingly small percent of oil from any given
> field. It used to max out at about 10% of what was in the ground...


This whole discussion of peak oil seems too focused
on the production side and not enough on reduced
demand.  To cite just one example, there is the use
of the term hybrid in transportation.  Current hybrids
are all parallel hybrids, which means that the IC
engine and the electric motors run in parallel.  But
this isn't much more efficient than IC only.  Car 
makers decided the hybrids would be introduced with
no performance compromises, perhaps to encourage
their acceptance.

Series hybrids work like a Diesel train: the IC
engine turns a generator which powers the electric
motors at the wheels.  This has the potential of
enormously higher efficiency, but at the cost of
performance.  They are slower, both in acceleration
and in top speed.  We can survive that.

My own vision of the next three to five decades does 
not include starvation or overly dire consequences, but 
it is slower, with less transportation of humans.  We
compensate by smarter use of communications, more
working at home, probably some downscaling in some
areas, perhaps less meat eating for instance, fewer
big entertainment events such as football games and
New Years Eve bashes in Times Square, that kinda 
stuff.  We will live.  

Poor people will suffer, as they always have, but
even they get something out of the deal: motorhomes,
campers and travel trailers would be converted into 
low cost housing, very low cost, nearly free.  

My extropian view of the future is one that is
way cool still, even if it takes a little longer
to get places.  

spike




  




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