[extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theorystandpoint ?

[Eugen Leitl]

On Sun, Sep 04, 2005 at 11:13:20AM -0700, spike wrote:

> Besides, global warming *might* contribute to 
> hurricanes, a century or two from now, so my 
> profiting in reducing that today is OK, right?

While I'm not sufficiently interested in global
warming theory and modelling to have an informed opinion
whether we're only seeing random fluctuations (the climate has
been known to have extreme excursions, ranging from Iceball Earth
to steaming global jungle and desert) it could very well
be that the recorded water surface warming is driving 
the peak wind velocities in the hurricane, and that that surface water 
warming is anthropogenic. Meaning, we're already reaping the 
storm we sow, paying for the damage in human lives
and cold hard cash. 

It's immaterial either way, however: we now abundantly know
that climate nonlinearities are the norm, and have been
a major contributor to extinctions of multiple past
high cultures. As a precaution, we need to minimize 
the amount of climate forcing (reduce anthropogenic 
aerosols/greenhouse gase emission), build better climate 
models and sensor networks, and prepare for potential unpleasantness
(drought/flooding, loss of crop and large scale starvation,
infrastructure damage and loss of life through catastrophic
damage events).

Would this be expensive? Probably. But the potential damage
would be far more expensive, and it's not that we don't have
the cash, given the amount of frivolous wars and other stupid
pasttimes we've been lately engaging in.

To do none of the above would be foolish, suicidally so.

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1099102,00.html

Is Global Warming Fueling Katrina?
Warm ocean temperatures are a key ingredient for monster hurricanes, prompting some scientists to believe that global warming is exacerbating our storm troubles

By JEFFREY KLUGER
SUBSCRIBE TO TIMEPRINTE-MAILMORE BY AUTHOR

Posted Monday, Aug. 29, 2005
The people of New Orleans are surely not thinking about wind vortices, the coriolis effect or the dampness of the troposphere as they hunker down during hurricane Katrina this morning. They.re mostly thinking about the savage rains and 140 mph winds that have driven them from their homes. But it.s that meteorological arcana that.s made such a mess of the bayou, and to hear a lot of people tell it, we have only ourselves.and our global-warming ways.to blame.

One thing.s for sure: hurricanes were around a long, long time before human beings began chopping down rainforests and fouling the atmosphere. To get such a tempest going, you don.t need much more than ocean temperatures above 80 degrees Fahrenheit; a cool, wet atmosphere above and a warm, wet one near the surface; and a preexisting weather disturbance with a bit of spin to it far enough from the equator (at least 300 miles) so that the rotation of the Earth amplifies the rotation of the storm. The more intense the storm becomes, the more the temperature of its core climbs, accelerating the spin, exacerbating the storm, and leading to the meteorological violence we call a hurricane. And violent it can be: The heat released in an average hurricane can equal the electricity produced by the U.S. in a single year.

So is global warming making the problem worse? Superficially, the numbers say yes.or at least they seem to if you live in the U.S. From 1995 to 1999, a record 33 hurricanes struck the Atlantic basin, and that doesn.t include 1992.s horrific Hurricane Andrew, which clawed its way across south Florida in 1992, causing $27 billion dollars worth of damage. More-frequent hurricanes are part of most global warming models, and as mean temperatures rise worldwide, it.s hard not to make a connection between the two. But hurricane-scale storms occur all over the world, and in some places.including the North Indian ocean and the region near Australia.the number has actually fallen. Even in the U.S., the period from 1991 to 1994 was a time of record hurricane quietude, with the dramatic exception of Andrew.

Just why some areas of the world get hit harder than others at different times is impossible to say. Everything from random atmospheric fluctuations to the periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean known as El Nino can be responsible. But even if all these variables have combined to keep the number of hurricanes worldwide about the same, the storms do appear to be more intense. One especially sobering study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that hurricane wind speeds have increased about 50% in the past 50 years. And since warm oceans are such a critical ingredient in hurricane formation, anything that gets the water warming more could get the storms growing worse. Global warming, in theory at least, would be more than sufficient to do that. While the people of New Orleans may not see another hurricane for years, the next one they do see could make even Katrina look mild.

NOAA National Hurricane Center

New Orleans Web Cams

New Orleans Hurricane Impact Study Area

BACK TO TOP       PRINTE-MAILMORE BY AUTHOR
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	14.10.2004 	
	A Reinsurer's "Master of Disaster" 	
	Paying out hundreds of millions in insurance claims after natural disasters each year, German reinsurer Munich Re relies on a scientist to help monitor climate and prepare the company for the future.

	
	

The "Master of Disaster" is not the name of a heavyweight wrestler: It's the unofficial title of Gerd Berz, who heads the geo-risk research department at German insuring giant Munich Re, the world's largest.

For 30 years, Berz's job has been to study meteorological and environmental climate changes for the world's largest reinsurer. His research helps Munich Re decide how to react in the marketplace.

While hurricanes, tropical storms and heat waves are known to the masses by charming names like "Isabel", "Queenie" or "Michaela", in the insurance industry they are simply referred to as "basic damage events."

Such weather-related natural catastrophes have caused $333 billion (.271 billion) in damage in the past 10 years -- six times more than 50 years ago. And costs for insured damages have risen tenfold in the same time.

One reason for the increase in natural catastrophes is global warming, which has led to a rise in weather-related catastrophes, according to scientists. Global warming is thought to be caused by increased greenhouse emissions. According to a UN report on global warming, by the end of this century the mean global temperature will have risen by somewhere between 1.5 and 6 degrees centigrade.

"That means, we'll have temperatures on the earth that mankind has never experienced, combined with a strong increase in extreme temperatures," Berz told Deutsche Welle.

Mankind to blame?

But climate change isn't the only thing responsible for the increase in damages -- mankind has had a hand in the affair as well.

A disaster today tends to hit more people because of overall greater population. The world population has more than doubled in the past fifty years and most people now live in cities -- which are not only more densely populated, but also more spread out, Berz said.

So when a "basic damage event" strikes, "the probability of it hitting a big town is getting greater and greater," he said. "In addition, many cities are particularly exposed -- think of the coastal areas. And this trend goes worldwide."

And because our society has become so reliant on infrastructure we are particularly vulnerable, Berz added.

"We are on a 24-hour drip of functioning infrastructure," Berz said. "A disturbance like a natural catastrophe, means necessities like gas, electricity or oil are disturbed, as well as traffic and communication. All these things are necessary for the economy to function, and individuals as well."

Big business

About one fifth of all weather-related damages are paid for by insurance. Some 6,000 primary insurers are then re-insured by Munich Re.

As a business, then, Munich Re says it has to take the current trend of global warming into account. One way to do this is to passing some of the risk on to the customer.

"Premiums will have to be increased relatively," Berz said. "And we have to let our customers know that we, as reinsurer, also have to take more big catastrophes into account, and thus need greater cash reserves. That is our main problem."

Not only do the reinsurers take measures to gird their wallets, they also work on the prevention angle. In order to keep damages low, Munich Re is involved in initiatives in areas from infrastructure to city planning. The company would for instance try to influence decisions on things like building codes in earthquake areas, or land-use regulations in flood zones.

Local initiatives important

Risk-analyst Berz said local initiatives are key in these areas, which can be influenced by individual cities and countries. But local action is less relevant when it comes to a world-wide issue like the weather.

A global phenomenon requires global climate protection, Berz said.

If industrial nations cut their greenhouse emissions, then developing nations will be able to expand theirs without causing an overall further imbalance.
"The industrial nations have done most of the development to this point, and have also gained the most from it," he said. "So in my opinion, we should have the responsibility of doing everything in our power not to increase development, but to stabilize it."
	
	Author DW staff (jen) 	
	http://www.dw-world.de © Deutsche Welle

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a>
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