[extropy-chat] FWD (TLC-Brotherhood) Disaster Aid [a military perspective]

Terry W. Colvin fortean1 at mindspring.com
Sun Sep 4 19:29:06 UTC 2005


Forwarding from another list...

Terry


I live in the Florida panhandle and we were the bulls-eye early on (again).

The refined prediction (12 hours out) was almost correct.  Had Katrina hit
as predicted (just to the west of NO with the winds blowing due north at the
peak and falling off to westerly) it would have been less destructive
because the winds would have blown the Lake P waters away from NO instead of
towards it and probably not broken the levies.  A sudden sidestep caused
Katrina to hit just east of NO, allowing the winds to push Lake P water over
and break the levies.  

Had forces been positioned close, they could have been clobbered and been
part of the problem instead of part of the solution.  Remember that the
hurricane force winds extended out a long way.  Mobile was flattened too.
Hurricanes, like women, go where they will, and do what they want.
Hind-sight is always 20/20.  

Speed of Response - Let's look at the time line here:

  Sunday - Katrina hits late Sunday evening.

  Monday and the winds are still strong and nobody (even the Weather Channel
and FOX) has a handle on just how bad the situation is.  People are looking
and trying to assess the scope of the problem - At some point the levies
break.

  Tuesday - the size is becoming apparent and the order goes to a National
Guard unit (pick any unit) to activate.  This is sent to 3 or 4 technicians
who are the only full time people at the local Armory.  They activate the
call roster which requires a 24 hour response.  Depending on the time - the
technicians also start the loading or positioning of equipment for loading.

  Wednesday - troops begin to report.  They find that the loading or
positioning of equipment is underway and get involved while also
accomplishing the activation paperwork required. At best they are dead tired
by now but loaded and ready to go.

  Thursday - a convoy pulls out and heads to the stricken area.  Time of
arrival will depend on distance to be covered but most will do it in a day.
Otherwise they would probably be deployed on aircraft.  However, not all
units have aircraft available and some will be on the road for more than one
day.

  Friday - boots on the ground and relief efforts underway.  Supplies and
more troops will be arriving with more following the next few days.

Obviously air assets can move much more quickly but still require ground
support, fuel, maintenance troops, spare parts and a secure landing strip.
Their time line looks much the same - only difference is their "boots on the
ground" is Thursday instead of Friday.

Unreasonable?  IMHO, no.


I'd rather see everyone (on both sides) quit trying to blame someone and
realize that this thing is bigger than anyone (right or left) ever thought
it would be.  This is real life, not some 2 hour disaster movie where the
hero wins through in the end.  We should be encouraging the survivors and
working to get them cared for, not nit-picking or trying to cast blame.
Using a National natural disaster as an excuse to bash someone of either
party is incredibly small minded and I'm ashamed that we have "leaders" that
think it's the best thing to do.


Dusty, Jim Henthorn 21st S.O.S. Nov. '67 - May '69 
Knife/Dusty NKP RTAFB


-- 
"Only a zit on the wart on the heinie of progress." Copyright 1992, Frank Rice


Terry W. Colvin, Sierra Vista, Arizona (USA) < fortean1 at mindspring.com >
     Alternate: < fortean1 at msn.com >
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