[extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory standpoint ?

[Robin Hanson]

At 03:24 PM 9/7/2005, Brian Atkins wrote:
>Ok let me simplify and just ask you and/or Hal this:
>
>If we are to accept that longer term crude futures contracts have 
>any worthwhile prediction capabilities, how do we explain the fact 
>that the current October 2005 contract (CLV5):
>
><http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?vol=Y&jav=adv&grid=Y&org=stk&sym=CLV5&data=E&code=BSTK&evnt=adv>
>
>essentially just has mirrored over its lifetime the spot cash price:
>
><http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?vol=Y&jav=adv&grid=Y&org=stk&sym=CLY0&data=E&code=BSTK&evnt=adv>
>
>If it truly had some predictive power shouldn't it already have 
>jumped up closer to $60 when it started off?

Not necessarily, no.  The futures prices may well have no *more* 
predictive power than spot prices.  Even so, they could still be the 
best forecast available.


Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323