[extropy-chat] Google testing prediction markets internally

[Neil H.]

According to the latest entry in the official Google Blog, the company has
been testing prediction markets internally in order to forecast "things of
strategic importance" to Google, like launch dates and office openings. They
also did some neat things like chart the entropy of the probability
distributions implied by the market prices over time, showing how the market
predictions get more decisive over time:

http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html

"Our search engine works well because it aggregates information dispersed
across the web, and our internal predictive markets are based on the same
principle: Googlers from across the company contribute knowledge and
opinions which are aggregated into a forecast by the market. Sometimes, just
feeling lucky isn't enough, and these tools can help."

I really hope this is a prelude to a product launch of some sort.
future.google.com <http://future.google.com>, perhaps?
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