[extropy-chat] The Dramatic Future Is Always 20-30 Years Away

[Brett Paatsch]

Robin Hanson wrote:

> I've heard many times how dramatic forecasts for the future tend to 
> be about 20-30 years away. 

> Anyone know of citations mentioning this observation?  Early or 
> canonical citations are of course preferred.

Sorry, no. But perhaps 20-30 years is about the time for another 
human generation to come to adulthood and curiosity/speculation
about what the future will hold for "our children" or "our grandchildren"
may be what's getting invoked there. Perhaps people are projecting
and most interested in hearing/reading projections about the time
frame that correspond to the maturity of their most substantial
investments.

Brett Paatsch